I’m watching a re-run of a Poker After Dark match on TiVo while I’m trying to figure out what I’m going to write about today when I notice this hand between Daniel Negreanu and Gabe Kaplan… specifically, I notice the percentage chance they each have of winning.
Kaplan is out of position and has: 
Daniel has: 
The flop is: 
The TV gave Kaplan a 61% chance to win and Daniel a 38% chance of winning. Huh!?!?
I’m scratching my head, but seriously, I can’t figure out for the life of me what that’s based on. A backdoor wheel draw? Can anyone explain to me why Kaplan is a favorite to win that hand?
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8 responses so far ↓
RedBarracuda // Mar 3, 2007 at 9:30 pm
it should be around 75%-25% for daniel I think. Only reason why they might given other calculation is if other Q or 4 were mucked by other players…
David // Mar 4, 2007 at 6:53 pm
Yeah… actually in a previous post, I calculated the odds for an overcard and undercard vs. two middle cards to be 60%/40%… after the flop, I imagine that would go up to at least 70%/30%, maybe even as high as you suggest.
donnylucky // Mar 5, 2007 at 4:23 am
It is rigged I TELL YOU!! The poker after dark producers knew what cards are going to drop on the turn and river. lol
Probably input the wrong hole cards for Kaplan at the back end. If Kaplan’s holding something like Q5o, that’ll be close.
RedBarracuda // Mar 5, 2007 at 4:05 pm
David…. I really don’t know what’s with commenting on my blog but as I can see Poker Dog left me a comment so probably it’s a problem of different nature….. still, I appreciate you wanting to leave a comment, and I my book it is written that you posted it
… cheers!
David // Mar 5, 2007 at 6:12 pm
Yeah… I’m not sure either… I’ll try commenting in your blog again later today and let you know what happens and send you the specific message it sends me.
Richard // Mar 7, 2007 at 3:20 am
Hmm, that is a strange percentage. I’m not much a percentages guy but that doesn’t seem right. It could be like what RedBarracuda suggested, but the percentage would still not be right, at least I don’t think so. Probably a screw by the stats and graphics crew. The show seems pretty low budget.
Actually Poker After Dark is a pretty good show. I like that they show 80% percent of the hands so we can get a good idea of how the pros really play instead of all in on every hand like we see in the ESPN’s WSOP coverage.
I wish it weren’t on so late, but at least they show reruns for the week on the NBCsports website. That’s a great feature, except that it allows you to watch only short 5-9 minute segments and then makes you click to view the next segment. Can’t complain though.
David // Mar 7, 2007 at 10:17 am
I honestly think they just got it reversed. 61% should be Daniel’s chance to win.
Probably just human error in post.
Smoothezt // Dec 6, 2007 at 2:28 pm
Poker Afterdark is RIGGED! i can prove it. Whatch the Episode Season 1 - Episode 2 at the time of 29min Gus hansen headup with Seed, and u will see the flop is 7 3 5, Gus hanson has 9 5 and seed holds A 7, LOL now for the funny part, everyone around Folds and while the dealer is putting the chips into a pile into the middle, the TURN card is shown BEFORE ITS DEALT!!! 2 of HEARTS! HAHA Check it out if u dont beleive it. and to prove it isnt a glitch, it shows the whole table doing what they doing when it shows on screen the Turn Card Shows 2 Hearts. Then it dissapears, and the dealer Deals and out comes 2 of Hearts, then it comes back on screen LOL Rigged i tell ya. Hope that all cash games with Pro’;s arent all rigged. But they probably ARE to keep the cred of the “pro’s” alive and them holding onto the sponsors.
Beware Pro’s, im moving up the Ranks Unrigged.
Smoothezt.
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