In previous post, I’ve talked about the different type of odds… to properly determine your odds though, you need to properly and accurately be able to count your outs.
“Counting outs” simply means determining how many cards will give you the best hand. Often you’ll find yourself in a situation where you won’t think you have the best hand, but often in a draw situation where you can get any number of cards to make your hand the best. Each of these cards is an out.
For example:
You have 
And the board is 
Certainly you don’t have the best hand… you have 7 high of nothing. But you do have 8 cards, the four 9s and the four 4s, that could come that could give you the straight.
That’s pretty simple… rarely though it is that simple. Many times there are cards that will give you a better hand but not nuts. For instance, in the above example… if 9 comes, you’d have second best hand to someone holding a TJ. So to follow that through, only four cards give the nut straight. The other four outs give you second best straight. These outs that give you a better hand but don’t give you the nuts are called “partial outs.” We usually count these partial outs as half, in other words, have the time they give you the winning hand, half the time they don’t.
So let’s count outs again in the above example. Four cards give you the nuts. Four cards give you a straight, but not the nuts. So, we say that you have 6 outs in the above example.
If you do NOT account for partial outs, you will commonly over value your hand and call far too often.
Previous related articles:
Understanding Pot Odds
Implied Odds - Betting on the River
Reverse Implied Pot Odds
3 responses so far ↓
Richard // Mar 10, 2007 at 7:01 pm
Good point, David. I hate it when I hit my flush only to lose to a higher one.
In terms of having four outs, that, like you said, depends if your opponent has J-10, so theoretical if you know that he doesn’t have that hand you would have eight outs, which is why reading an opponent is so important.
I’m wonder how you came up with six outs though. Let’s say we don’t know what the opponent has, no read at all. The percentage that he would have J-10 is less than if he had any other hand. That would mean that on average we will have the full eights outs.
With six, you seem to be giving a 50% chance that the opponent will have J-10.
I’m no good at odds. I’m just trying to understand why it’s six outs.
David // Mar 10, 2007 at 7:49 pm
First off, you were right about the Q to make TJ straight… I changed it to reflect that… thank you…
Okay… on to your point.. how do I count the four 9s as half an out? Basically, yes, you are right… I have no idea what the other person is holding and the odds of them holding J-T is pretty low… in a small stakes game though, I see people go for crazy inside straight draws ALL THE TIME… even though the pot odds are clearly against them. With limited information and no real knowledge of the players, I’ll say it’s a 50/50 chance that they are drawing to an inside straight… and people often hold on to things like J-T, especially in small stake games… so therefore… if the river card is a 9, I will win half the time and lose the other half. Which is a very rough approximation… but almost no matter what I can’t count them as whole outs… as only a 4 on the river gives me the nuts… a 9 on the river just gives me the near nuts.
I guess is what it boils down to is that I’d rather be tough on my outs than soft and over value my hand.
Now, with some knowledge of the players and their betting patterns, I can make a more informed guess. If I knew for instance that someone would never bet fourth street on an inside straight draw and that person bets, I can assume they have an over pair or two pair and therefore possibly count the four 9s as outs, with a pretty good certainty that ANY straight would win the hand. In a multi-way pot, this would become less and less certain.
Also, I wanted to simplify it a little bit…
Richard // Mar 11, 2007 at 4:24 pm
Thanks for the explanation. I understand your reasoning now. It definitely makes things simpler, since there are so many factors involved. Every time I try to think poker theory I get kind of lost.
Also good point about multi-way pots making the J-10 straight more possible.
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