Sometimes at the home game I get asked about odds of making a hand. It’s pretty simply really… no need to have to figure it out each time. There are a few situations you’ll want to memorize and the rest you can figure yourself.

One nice rule is the 4-2 rule. It’s not completely accurate, but it will get you close. Here’s the way it works. Say you have a flush draw on the flop (9 outs). You multiple your number of outs by four. For example 9 x 4 = 36. You have a 36% chance of making your hand. After the turn, you multiple your outs by 2. For example 9 x 2 = 18. You have an 18% chance of making that flush draw. Of course, that’s not completely right. Your actually odds are closer to 35%/20% respectively… but you can see how it gets you pretty much there quickly. Off by a +/- 1% is really going to change things.

So, just to round this post off… here’s some other interesting statistics.

Wired pairs flop a set 11.8% of the time.
A-K flops at least an Ace or King 32.4% of the time
Two suited cards make a flush 6.5% of the time.
Two suited cards FLOP a flush 0.8% of the time.
Two suited cards flop a four flush 10.9% of the time.
Two unmatched cards flop two pair 2.2% of the time.

Now stop chasing the draw and sucking me out on the river!

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