Been awhile. Life has simply been crazy with work… film productions are going nuts here and I’ve been working on many of them. Anyway, let’s jump back into it with a simple question:
What is a big bet?
The answer is that the question is relative to size of the game.
In the book, Professional No-Limit Hold ‘em: Volume I
T on the button. Five players limp in front of you and since it’s a relatively loose game, you decide to limp in as well. The SB completes and the BB checks. 8 players total for a pot of $14.
The flop comes K 8
3
The five players in front of you put $10 each in the pot. The pot stands at $64. Should you call $10 for a chance to win $64? You’re getting a little over 6 to 1 on your money (not to even mention the implied odds and the other two players behind you) and you your getting better than 3 to 1 to make your nut flush draw… so of course you should call.
Now suppose that the five players in front of you go all-in (this is of course not likely to happen in real life, but it’s an example). Does this change anything?
Now it’s $98 dollars to win $490. You’re still getting the same odds though… so nothing should change.
What if you started with a $5000? Or a $50,000? It’s still the same and the money now involved is relative to the size game you are playing.
If you think to yourself, “Wow, I could never call a bet for a $1000 on just a draw. I’m going to lose more times than I win.” It’s natural to think of this as in absolute dollars. A $5000 to me is a new camera that I want for my film production. But, you would be wrong and so would I. If something was a good value at $10, it’s still a good value at $1000 or $5000, etc.
Put simply, folding in this scenario cost you money in the long run.
2 responses so far ↓
Kevin G // Apr 19, 2008 at 6:38 pm
It has been awhile David! I have been dropping in from time to time and decided to check for an update.
It’s funny that you posted this. I had the same conversation with a friend of mine last night at the casino. He is a very intellectual guy and a decent player. But he tends to create his own theories instead of making correct decisions.
He recently moved to NL and we were talking about some recent big pots that he was involved in. He told me about a situation almost identical to what you described, only in this hand he flopped top pair with the king high flush draw.
It was a three-way pot where UTG checked, next guy bet, friend smooth called, UTG went all-in for about $200. The next guy thought for awhile and then folded. My friend was getting odds to call, but he laid it down because he didn’t want to risk all the money he had won that night.
I may need to point him to your post!
David // Apr 19, 2008 at 7:09 pm
Please do!
I have a hard time remembering this myself, which is why I wrote this… now in a tournament situation, things change. You might not want to put your tournament life on the line for a draw. In that situation, you can make an argument for both sides.
But clearly, in a cash game, there is no advantage to “saving” money when you have the right odds to draw. In the long run, you’re losing money and if you’re not playing poker for the long run results, then you probably won’t be reading this blog.
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