This is a hand from my home poker game last night. I wasn’t involved, but I watched it happen. My opinions will be stated in the comments section.
It’s in the middle stages of a sit-n-go. Two places pay. 7 of 9 players are still at the table. The blinds are $25/$50. You started with $1000, but through some bad luck, you’re now down to $640. You’re in the SB.
The action is folded to you. You look down to find 7
3
Loading …You actually raise to $150.
The BB, a tight-aggressive type who has played pretty solid poker, looks down at their cards and pushes all-in for $590.
Loading …You actually call. The BB shows AKo which holds up and your down to $50.
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6 responses so far ↓
David // Jul 13, 2008 at 8:13 pm
10-1: Raising here is not bad. Everyone has shown weakness and you only have one player to beat. I’d probably raise here with ANY two cards.
So how much? I tend to prefer the $150 as it gets you all the information you need without risking your stack. The other two raises will get you the same information, but put more of your chips at stake.
Folding is also good. 73o is a horrible hand, especially out of position (if you’re called). Sometimes you just have to let the blinds go or else players will soon catch on that you try to steal blinds. Mixing it up will make players think a little bit next time you try to steal the blinds.
10-2: You can only fold. Calling is horrible. Best case scenario, you’re 65/35% up against two over cards… not terrible… BUT… Worst case scenario, you’re up against a pocket pair and your a HUGE dog: 85/15%!
Sure you’re down to $490 in chips, but you’re not out and still have enough at this blind level, that a push will force people to have a hand to call you.
If you catch a really good hand, like AA or KK and make move that looks like ANOTHER steal attempt, you’re more likely to be called down cause of the image of a stealer who backs down to a re-raise that you’ve just created.
John // Jul 15, 2008 at 9:33 am
On factor in my decision is probably that I’m used to seeing the actual stack amounts, blind amounts, etc. printed plainly on the screen so I can easily calculate my M. In this case I was thinking my M was almost 5, which based on your intro it wasn’t. Live I have to work on keeping track of actual chip counts.
Seeing the results, that call looks horrible, but (assuming M5) I’d do it again. Also, you have to take into account Tracey’s stack, that other girl’s stack, and the fact that the best hand I saw in over 30 hands was KTo (which got busted by trips).
Tracey’s stack was simply enormous. It’s a gamble in itself to expect to catch up to this with steals and/or cards.
I had No confidence that I was going to hit any hands, and even if I did, what could I expect? Doubling up from $490? No thanks.
It’s vulgar, and it makes me a donk, but I will gamble while my stack is still enough to keep me in contention.
BUT, given that my M was higher than I thought it was a bit too early for that.
P.S.
In the heads up game I think I paired the board at most three times, and I had the most ragged assortment of starting junk you ever saw.
I was playing hyper aggressive there, and it’s really not indicative of my normal play style.
Between that 73o push, and the heads-up game my style looked really wild, but none of that play was really representative of how I play.
I generally play slower tournaments with a larger field, and am usually able to hit a couple of hands and double up before the blinds become an issue. I’m usually very tight until the blind level just before the antes, and then I go into a much more aggressive mode.
David // Jul 15, 2008 at 10:26 am
You’re right about stacks sizes… we should take those into account. However, the most important stack size is the villain… those stack sizes are approximations.
$490 is still a fighting chance with the blinds of $25/$50. Agreed it’s a small M… but still… better than going in where in the best case scenario is a 35% chance to win and worst case 15% - an average of 25%.
Even if you’re card dead, you can probably find a better spot than that. At least a coin flip. I mean, you’ve gotta win coin flips.
And yeah, doubling up $490 gets you back in fighting shape with an M of 12 and off the short stack.
And although, the chip leader has a nice size stack, it’s not a mortal lock and it’s still early.
Were you tilted about not defending that top pair (KTo)?
John // Jul 15, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Yeah, I was very pissed at myself over that one. I feel like the KT hand was a *much* bigger mistake than this one.
Psychologically, I get over suck-outs pretty well. It’s when I misplay that I often have trouble snapping back.
AltijdAndries // Jul 15, 2008 at 3:40 pm
I’d fold, straight away, both situations. When you’re beat you’re beat. 7-3 is SO horrible that even if the BB is bluffing you’ll probably lose…
David // Jul 15, 2008 at 3:47 pm
Folding definitely works. Especially when low (but, not dead) on chips.
The thing about raising though, is that even if the BB suspects you’re on a steal, it’s hard for them to call or re-raise. You have to get aggressive when you’re low…
An argument can be made for both plays though. Certainly.
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