In a follow up to my last article, Reading Your Opponents, I’d like to talk about reading opponents who have a better than average read on you.

I have a weekly home poker game, as most of you know. It started off with rather unskilled players (myself included) and has since developed into a game of highly skilled players who are always working on improving their game. The table is getting harder each week.

A situation came up this week, that I thought was interesting and exemplifies a point I brought up in a previous post a few months ago, Playing Your Gut.

It was in the third round of the tournament game. The blinds were $20/$40. I had about $800 and was in the SB with A 8. Everyone, including the button, folds to me. With only one person to act behind me (my girlfriend at that), I decided that perhaps I should just try to take the pot right there. I raise 3x the BB, making it a $120 total to go.

Now, my girlfriend is a very good hyper-aggressive player in her own right who kindly listens to me ramble about poker on an almost daily basis. There probably isn’t anyone in the world who knows how I play better. She’s just watched everyone fold to me and for to make a basically textbook play of raising out of the SB, so she calls.

The flop comes A Q 6.

Okay. Not too bad for my hand. I’ve got top pair with a lousy kicker, but she probably would have raised had she had an Ace. Again, I play it by the book and make a standard continuation bet of another $120.

The BB calls.

So… she caught a piece of that. Now I put on my thinking cap. What could she call with? I put her on a Queen… maybe QJs or even KQs. I think she would have probably raised preflop with any Ace and definitely AQ, so it’s not that.

The turn comes 7.

Now, as much as she knows my play style, I know hers. She aggressive with mediocre hands when she senses weakness, so I check with that thought that if she bets, I’m probably coming over the top.

Course, she knows me too well. She checks.

The river now comes up as an 5.

I check again… that check on the turn worried me worse than her betting. A check is something I could expect if she had two pair or a set and trying to trap. My hand hadn’t improved. Hopefully she’s just check it down and we’d flip our cards over.

Course, like I said, she knows me too well. She goes all-in and smiles coyly.

I only had her covered by about $40 so this sent me to the tank. I know she knows how I play and she knows that I know she knows, etc etc… it’s was like a loop in my head. What could she have!?

The dealer called timed and gave me a minute left to act, so I went back to the only thing I thought I could rely on her was all the actions before the river:

• She just called my pre-flop raise
• She only called my continuation bet
• She checked the turn

Out of all the possible hands she could be playing, it kept adding up to me that she had a pair of Queens and she thought I had an Ace.

At the 10 second mark, I finally call and watch the smile fade from my girlfriend’s beautiful face. She had Q9 (yes, another Q9 story! LOL)

Later, she said that I often over analyze a situation and that with just top pair, I was very likely to talk myself out of calling her. But, I knew she knew that. So, in the end, I went with my gut (something that she advised that I do more often, BTW). On the flop, I thought she had a Queen. My gut was screaming Queen by the way she played the hand until the river. I knew the way she played and I knew she played that way because she knew the way I played, which made me fearful of trap, but allowed me to narrow down her hand range correctly in the end.

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Note from David: I’d like everyone to welcome a new writer to the Poker Penguin Team. His name is John and he’s just coming into poker. He’s been a friend of mine for awhile and I’ve always enjoyed his writing, so I invited him to come on Poker Penguin and write about what he’s learning. So, expect more articles from him in the future. I think you’ll enjoy is witty, direct, in-your-face, writing style. So without further ado, I give you John’s first article:

Come on, admit it. There’s a good chance you’re reading this because you have fantasies of beating the Russian in his own basement. Ed Norton is your loser sidekick, and you have the supernatural ability to spot tells.

Texas Hold ‘em is like the grown up’s version of being an astronaut. Most likely you aren’t an astronaut or a professional poker player — and probably never will be. But that’s OK. I still love you.

So how do you go from noob to pro? Or at least from noob to “someone who doesn’t hemorrhage money?”

Well, when I figure that one out, I’ll let you know, but in the meantime I’ll relate to you some of the things I have learned. As always with a new endeavor, I find the first several weeks of learning extremely inefficient. There are certain basics that — to me — are the very first things you need to know, and it is exactly these things that are never written down.

1) All Poker is not Created Equal

This is probably the most important thing I have learned. I’m not talking about different forms of Poker. I’m talking about different variants of Texas Hold ‘Em. Most books, even beginner books, just start you out in the middle of a bunch of assumptions without letting you in on these assumptions. They don’t tell you what type of Poker their advice is applicable to. The first chapter of the first book I read gave me a rigid beginner structure to stick to for my next several sessions. This is great, it’s an awesome way to learn. The problem is that the book neglected to mention that this advice is totally useless when playing short-handed and, especially, heads-up.

You cannot approach a 10-man 3/6 limit Hold ‘Em table with the same strategy as a friendly 6-man No-Limit game with tournament structure. While an expert will find that his skills translate well from game to game, the noob who is memorizing basic betting structures will find himself completely bewildered.

2) You have to play for an amount of money people do not want to lose

Playing a $5 buy-in No-Limit tournament with friends is fun, but you’re unlikely to learn a whole hell of a lot. People will go all-in pre-flop with crap, people will bluff like madmen, and people will call any and everything. If you’re playing tight, like a noob should, you’ll find yourself staring down a mountain of chips from the lucksack who happened to win the all-in showdowns.

If you’re playing with friends, the buy-in should be enough that winning and losing actually has some meaning to the people playing. Otherwise, everyone will play essentially randomly. This advice may not be 100% accurate, because if everyone participating has sincere intentions of improving their game, they may play properly even without money at stake. I’m just saying this is pretty unlikely.

3) Pay attention to how much of your hand is made from the board.

Wow! I have a straight! I’m going to go all-in! Hold on there a second, buddy. How much of that hand is coming from your hole cards, and how much of it is on the board? Is 7-8-9-10 on the board, and you’re holding 6-K? Well, guess what, somebody else almost certainly has that jack, and your straight is very vulnerable. If you have a heart flush, and there are 4 hearts on the board, what is your highest heart? If you’re holding 2H, your flush isn’t worth squat with a board like that.

This is a very important concept, and one of the easiest to screw up as a noob. You cannot look at your hand in a vacuum, but rather the strength of your hand relative to the board. Which brings me to the next important concept:

4) Pay attention to when the board is dangerous.

Many players will play almost any suited connectors (i.e. cards that are sequential and of the same suit). Some people will even play any two suited cards. Whenever you see three of the same suit on the board, a warning light needs to go off in your head that somebody may hold a flush. Due to all of the possibilities, straights are a little harder to spot, but be careful any time you see a board with many cards in similar rank. For example, If you hold K-10, and the board is 10-J-K-A-2, anybody holding Queen has a straight. Even though you have two pair, that isn’t really such a great hand with this board.

It seems to me that two pair is a particularly dangerous hand. It is very easy to overvalue. It goes without saying, but your two pair doesn’t mean much if there are two kings on the board and your second pair comes from a low-rank hole card.

Also, a pair on the board is a dangerous thing in general, particularly when it is a high-rank card like a king. If there are a pair of kings on the board, there is a very good chance that someone has at least trip kings. Many people will play hands that have any combination with an ace or king.

This past weekend I played pocket sixes in late position. The flop was K-6-4. I bet heavily. After betting and raising, the result was heads up between me and a super old dude. The turn was a King. I had a full house. I bet again. Super old dude raises. Uh-oh. River comes, it’s a deuce. So the board is now K-6-4-K-2.

He had played K-4. His full house beat mine. Beware pairs on the board, especially if they are a high rank.

5) Low-rank pocket pairs aren’t that great.

See the above anecdote. Pocket fours may look really cool pre-flop, but after a flop of 10-Q-A, they are pretty crappy. You usually won’t hit your trip, and you’re stuck trying to defend a crappy pair. More often than not, the flop is going to make you fold because of good overcards. Low pocket pairs are fun to get, but they end up costing you more money than you think.

6) Don’t bluff very often.

In the grand scheme of things, you ultimately have to bluff sometimes to keep your game unpredictable. But you aren’t a pro. You’re still a noob. You’re going to have enough trouble just knowing when your hand is actually strong. Bluffing is part of the romance of the game, and hence most beginners go hog wild with bluffing. But bluffing is hard, and I daresay a relatively advanced tactic, and probably shouldn’t be a big part of your game initially.

If you insist on bluffing, try to bluff with hands that are possibly winnable. This is called a semi-bluff. An example of a semi bluff would be betting when you hold 10-J, and the flop is 9-10-K. You almost certainly don’t have the high pair, but if a Queen comes down, you’ll have a straight. (Which would still be beaten by A-J) And even if you don’t hit your straight, there’s still the possibility that nobody hit the king and you’ll win.

7) Ten people means a lot of hands

It is very easy to get amazed when your hand is beat. “I can’t believe he had pocket kings!” But ten people means ten hands got dealt! The more people at a table, the stronger your hand needs to be to win at the river. In heads up, a pair of kings will win most of the time. At a ten man table, that same pair won’t win nearly as often. The more people playing the game, the higher the odds that somebody has something good.

8) People at 3/6 limit play almost anything, and it’s tough to make them fold.

3/6 limit is a pretty popular game, and since I’m still a noob, it’s what I play. There is a huge mix of people, ranging from tight/aggressive players to total maniacs. In 3/6 limit Hold ‘Em your hand really needs to be good most of the time. You can’t go “all-in” to muscle people out of the pot, and many people will see you all the way to the river just to do it.

I think the biggest leak in my current game is that I raise pre-flop too often. I raised pre-flop with those pocket sixes I mentioned above with the express purpose of getting people to fold pre-flop. Grandpa crazy saw my pre-flop raise with K-4 from early position. (Of course my play may be questionable, but the point is that it’s really hard to get these people to fold!)

Anyway, in 3/6 limit, your winning hand is going to have to go to the river most of the time. Even after the bets double, your opponent only has to risk $6 for a substantially larger pot. People on straight and flush draws are often willing to take these odds. Even when you know you’re winning this very second, it’s often impossible to knock people out before the river. You can’t make them go all in for that flush draw. For this reason you have to be very confident of the strength of your hand in 3/6 limit.

So there you have it. That’s the condensed basics I wish I would have known when I started playing. Bear in mind, all of this comes from somebody who is still pretty sucky, so your mileage may vary.

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I’m stealing this from directly from Professional No-Limit Hold ‘em: Volume I (a book that I suggest you pick up by the way).

The reason I stole this quiz is that I think it provides a good example of an important point which I will discuss in the comments.

You’re playing a $5/$10 no-limit game with everyone having about $2000.

You have A Q.

You open from middle position for $30. The cutoff calls. The button, a tight, aggressive player reraises to $120 total. The blinds fold. The pot is now $165.

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There are mainly three factors that play into successfully reading opponents.

1. Their bet. The least reliable of the methods, it’s the first indication they give of what they could be holding. For instance, if they bet the flop, at face value, they are saying they hit the flop. However, as poker is a game of deception, this could be true or not true. You have to figure out that based on other information.

2. Observation of previous hands. People, especially at the lower stakes, tend to fall into betting patterns. If you’ve been watching the player for a little while, you can start to pick up possible patterns. For instance, on the flop does the player always bet top pair but check/call middle pair or lower? Do they check or bet flush draws? What happens when they hit a big hand? Do they slow play it or push as much money into the center as they can, as fast as they can? These are observations that you pick up that will help you determine where you are in the hand against them and will help guide your actions.

Let me just say, this is the biggest mistake that I think beginning players make. Often times, I’ll see beginning players disinterested in the hand or only watching the cards, if they aren’t involved in the pot. If you’re not observing all the hands and the players, even hands that you’re not involved in, from the time you sit down at the poker table until the time you leave, you’re throwing money away (and I’d love to invite you to join any table I’m at).

3. Tells. What is a tell? A tell is a detectable change in a player’s behavior or demeanor that gives clues to that player’s assessment of his hand. What did they do last time they had a flush draw? How did they bet? Did they aggressively throw their money in the middle or nervously put it in? Everything they do at the poker table is information you can use in future situations to figure out how to read them when you’re up against them.

At the higher levels of play, you won’t be able to depend on this, but at small stakes, tells are nearly ALWAYS reliable and sometimes painfully obvious. Of course, observation of previous hands will give you more accurate gauge of how reliable a tell is. For instance, you observed a previous and noticed that when your opponent bluffed, their eyes darted around nervously while they sat up in their chair. Now your in a pot with them and they bet big at the flop like they did when they were bluffing, but this time they are calm and leaning backing in their chair. What does that tell you?

Putting it all together:

Armed with these three pieces of information, you can usually form a pretty good picture of the possible range of cards that your opponent could be holding. This will tell you what you should do.

Lastly, don’t be afraid to make a mistake. You will be wrong from time to time. Don’t let it upset you. Instead, analyze it. Why did you think the way you did? Where, in your deduction, did you err? If you do that every time you make a mistake at reading an opponent/situation, in no time you’ll be making less and less mistakes.

Reading opponents is a skill. It can be learned, but it takes a lot of practice and a lot of errors… and even if you are a 11 time WSOP bracelet winner, you’ll still make mistakes at reading opponents correctly.

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I wanted to talk about tells, but that post isn’t quite ready yet… but I need to mention this sooner rather than later.

WSOP Circuit Event
Friday, May 09, 2008 to Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Schedule:

Fri, May 9th 12 PM
Event #1 - No Limit Hold’em $500

Sat, May 10th 12 PM
Event #2 - No Limit Hold’em $500

Sun, May 11th 12 PM
Event #3 - No Limit Hold’em $500

Mon, May 12th 12 PM
Event #4 - No Limit Hold’em $500

Mon, May 12th 3 PM
Event #5 - Pot Limit Omaha-Re-buys $500

Tue, May 13th 12 PM
Event #6 - No Limit Hold’em $300

Tue, May 13th 3 PM
Event #7 - 7 Card Stud $300

Wed, May 14th 12 PM
Event #8 - No Limit Hold’em $500

Wed, May 14th 3 PM
Event #9 - Limit Hold’em $500

Thu, May 15th 12 PM
Event #10 - No Limit Hold’em $1,000

Thu, May 15th 3 PM
Event #11 - No Limit Hold’em $500

Fri, May 16th 12 PM
Event #12 - No Limit Hold’em $500

Sat, May 17th 12 PM
Event #13 - No Limit Hold’em $1,000

Sun, May 18th 12 PM
Event #14 - Ladies No Limit Hold’em $200

Mon, May 19th 12 PM
Event #15 - Circuit Championship $5,000

Does anyone want to stake me?

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I won the home game last night (about $140), so I decided today that I might take that $100 and go play a $1/2 no-limit game at Harrah’s.

So, the game is 7 handed. I’ve been playing a little over an hour, so I fairly decent feel for the players at the table and I’m up to about $140.

I’m dealt Q 9 in early position, UTG+1. The UTG player limps. And as you might or might know from a previous post, I have a little superstition with Q9, so I limp for $2. A few people limp as well.

The BB decides to raise to $12 total. UTG calls. As do I (I have a feeling) and everyone else folds. 3 players with a, let’s say, $40 pot.

The flop comes Q 9 6.

Great flop right? Well… it is, but very dangerous.

The BB bets out $25. A little over half the pot. UTG calls.

Now… I know that the BB is a loose and not very good player. I’ve seen him make some incredibly poor, in my opinion, plays. I don’t really think much of him. The UTG as only just sat down, so I have no knowledge of his playing ability.

The way I figure, one player probably has top pair… probably BB and hopefully UTG has a draw. The reason I come to this conclusion is that UTG didn’t raise, which is what I would expect with something like trips and the texture of the board. Now the BB could have trips and I could be beat… but again, he’s loose and not really that good.

If I call the $25, I’ll have about $110 behind me. Both players have me covered.

What to do?

I have 3 options, in my head:

1. I could fold. That doesn’t seem likely. I mean, I just flopped top two pair. Playing like that is just playing scared and I don’t think you can make money that way.

2. I could call. I’m last to act, so I could close the action. But then, what do I do on the turn? If the BB bet on the flop, he’s likely to bet on the turn. Then I’ll have less behind me and it’s rather weak. What happens if another club or a straight card hits on the turn… then what? No, calling… while tempting, seems really dangerous. I’d rather just win the $90 pot now.

3. I can go all-in. I still have about a $110 after the call… so even though they both have me covered. I’m making nearly a pot sized raise which, is definitely not the right odds for a straight or flush draw, then I only have to worry about trips… in which case, I’m probably going to lose most of my money anyway.

So, that’s the way I figure it. So after about a minute of thought, I push all-in.

The BB calls (rather quickly too), which surprises me. UTG starts figure pot odds aloud, so obviously he’s the draw. He either has a flush or straight draw and I’m hoping in my head that he decides to fold, especially since the BB still has enough chips behind him to hurt him bad and he’s just sat down… does he really want to only play one hand?

Anyway… after some debate in a point where he was about to throw his cards in the muck, he rethinks things and calls.

The turn comes 7. Not something I’m really excited about, but when both players check, I breathe a sigh of relief that I’m still best.

Then the hammer falls. A. Definitely not a card I wanted to see.

The BB checks and of course, UTG goes all-in. My heart sinks.

Then what the BB does is most surprising of all… but the BB CALLS and flips over AQ (I told you he wasn’t that good of a player).

As predicted though, UTG shows the flush and what a flush… turns out he had a straight flush draw on the flop with J T and I throw my Q9 into the muck.

Did I make the right play? I know, I’m convinced that I did… but let’s hear what you have to say.

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Been awhile. Life has simply been crazy with work… film productions are going nuts here and I’ve been working on many of them. Anyway, let’s jump back into it with a simple question:

What is a big bet?

The answer is that the question is relative to size of the game.

In the book, Professional No-Limit Hold ‘em: Volume I they make a point of saying that players sometimes forget about “Relative Dollars” and instead think in terms of Absolute dollars. For instance, in a $1/$2 game you have $100 behind you and everyone has you covered. You’re dealt A T on the button. Five players limp in front of you and since it’s a relatively loose game, you decide to limp in as well. The SB completes and the BB checks. 8 players total for a pot of $14.

The flop comes K 8 3

The five players in front of you put $10 each in the pot. The pot stands at $64. Should you call $10 for a chance to win $64? You’re getting a little over 6 to 1 on your money (not to even mention the implied odds and the other two players behind you) and you your getting better than 3 to 1 to make your nut flush draw… so of course you should call.

Now suppose that the five players in front of you go all-in (this is of course not likely to happen in real life, but it’s an example). Does this change anything?

Now it’s $98 dollars to win $490. You’re still getting the same odds though… so nothing should change.

What if you started with a $5000? Or a $50,000? It’s still the same and the money now involved is relative to the size game you are playing.

If you think to yourself, “Wow, I could never call a bet for a $1000 on just a draw. I’m going to lose more times than I win.” It’s natural to think of this as in absolute dollars. A $5000 to me is a new camera that I want for my film production. But, you would be wrong and so would I. If something was a good value at $10, it’s still a good value at $1000 or $5000, etc.

Put simply, folding in this scenario cost you money in the long run.

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